Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam
📖 The Preview
Sarpsborg are massive favourites here and it's not hard to see why. They've dominated this fixture historically, winning five of the eight meetings, and at 75% to take all three points, the gap in quality is pretty clear. Ham-Kam have had a patchy run of form, picking up just one win from their last five, while Sarpsborg are generally the stronger side at home. Both teams are expected to score, but Sarpsborg pulling away to a 3-1 win feels right — comfortable enough, though Ham-Kam nick one to make it look respectable late on.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF Win Value | 8/11 1.74 | 54% | 75% | +21% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.87 | 24% | 14% | -10% |
| Ham-Kam Win | 3/1 4.15 | 22% | 11% | -11% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sarpsborg strong at home (WWW), Ham-Kam poor away (LDWDDLD) and conceding heavily (2.08/game)
H2H: Sarpsborg win 5 of last 8, avg 3.8 goals/game — high-scoring fixture trend
Stakes: Both teams mid-table, no extreme pressure, but Sarpsborg's home dominance provides natural motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Sarpsborg have dominated this fixture — 5 wins in last 8, including 4-0, 3-2, and 2-2 results. High-scoring pattern is consistent with both teams contributing goals, though Sarpsborg win the majority convincingly.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.