Senegal vs Iraq
📖 The Preview
Senegal are massive favourites here and honestly it is hard to argue with that. On the World Cup stage they carry far more quality and experience than Iraq, and the numbers back it up with a 77 percent win probability. Iraq will compete for a bit, but Senegal should have too much firepower and defensive solidity to let them in. Expect Senegal to grab two without reply, keeping it relatively controlled rather than a cricket score, which fits perfectly with both sides staying under two and a half goals combined.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal Win Value | 2/5 1.40 | 67% | 77% | +10% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.45 | 21% | 18% | -3% |
| Iraq Win | 7/1 8.00 | 12% | 5% | -7% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🏥 Team News
No reported absences for either side.
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Senegal home WW, Iraq away DDDW — limited away attacking output
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful recent head-to-head history to draw from
Stakes: Fresh World Cup group stage, both teams on equal footing but quality gap is significant
Betting: BTTS unlikely — Iraq's xG of 0.65 points to a shutout; Under 2.5 slightly possible but Senegal's attack projects over 2 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient historical meetings to establish a reliable H2H trend between these nations.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Iraq's model xG of just 0.65 reflects their significant quality deficit against Senegal's organised and experienced defensive unit. With Iraq's away form showing only one win from four away matches and minimal attacking penetration expected, Senegal are highly likely to keep a clean sheet, making BTTS unlikely.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Although Senegal's xG of 2.63 suggests attacking intent, a 2-0 scoreline sits at the boundary. Iraq's defensive solidity and low xG output is likely to keep this a controlled, professional Senegal victory without the match opening up into a high-scoring affair, pointing toward under 2.5 total goals.