Iraq Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 6)
Senegal put on a commanding display to dismantle Iraq 5-0, with the match effectively settled early when Iraq's R. Sulaka was sent off in the 13th minute. From there, it was one-way traffic. H. Diarra opened the scoring in the fourth minute with A. Seck's assist, and the numerical advantage allowed Senegal to dominate the remainder. I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 56th minute, then turned provider for P. Gueye's strike three minutes later. Gueye doubled his tally in the 71st minute after I. Ndiaye's cross, before Ndiaye rounded things off with the fifth in the 82nd minute, set up by Gueye. It was a rout.
Our model had called a Senegal win with 71% confidence and predicted a 3-0 scoreline—the right result, but Senegal's ruthlessness in the second half proved greater than anticipated. The early red card shifted the match's texture significantly, handing Senegal far more space to operate than the pre-match setup suggested they'd have. Our projection at the 78-minute mark flagged a clean sheet and comfortable control, which held true, though the finishing in the closing stages was sharper than the model had weighted.
The gap between a 3-0 prediction and a 5-0 reality reflects how red cards can amplify a favourite's advantage beyond typical probabilities. Senegal's dominance was clear from kickoff, but the numerical imbalance turned dominance into demolition. A correct result call, an underestimated margin, and a lesson in how tournaments can pivot on a single disciplinary moment.
France dismantled Iraq with a commanding 3-0 victory in their World Cup group-stage encounter. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring in the 14th minute with an assist from Michael Olise, then doubled his tally in the 54th minute when Ousmane Dembélé fed him in midfield. Dembélé rounded out the scoreline in the 66th minute, converting from another Olise opportunity. The performance reflected the vast gulf in quality between the two sides: France controlled possession, executed their attacking transitions with precision, and Iraq offered little resistance despite their determination to avoid a heavier defeat.
Our model predicted this exact 3-0 scoreline before kickoff, assigning a 87% probability to a French win. That confidence was grounded in concrete pre-match factors: France's recent form averaging 2.8 goals scored, Iraq's away record yielding just 1.09 goals per match, and a decisive 492-point ELO gap between the nations. The match unfolded consistently with those expectations—Iraq never threatened to breach France's defensive line, while France's attacking players operated with the kind of freedom that comes from superior team quality.
The result secures France's progression from the group stage and delivers the strong goal difference their tournament ambitions demand. For Iraq, the heavy defeat compounds their slim chances of advancing, though their passive approach at least prevented an even more damaging scoreline. The prediction's accuracy here reflects a straightforward mismatch rather than a close call: when the evidence points strongly in one direction, the outcome tends to follow.
Norway's superior class ultimately proved decisive in a commanding 4-1 victory over Iraq, though the margin obscures a more competitive opening period. Haaland broke through in the 29th minute with an assist from Wolfe, but Iraq responded sharply just ten minutes later when Hussein levelled the score with a finish set up by Al Ammari. The momentum appeared genuinely contested at 1-1 entering the final stages of the first half, yet Norway reasserted control immediately when Haaland added a second before halftime. Ostigard extended the lead in the 76th minute from Odegaard's assist, and an own goal from Hussein in the 90th minute sealed a comprehensive final scoreline.
Our model predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Norway favoured at 75 per cent win probability, making the correct call on the result direction but significantly underestimating the scale of Norway's dominance. Pre-match analysis had weighted Iraq's mixed recent form and substantially lower ELO rating as decisive factors, alongside Norway's motivation to assert early superiority in a level group position. The match broadly reflected those underlying expectations—Norway's quality gap proved real and decisive—yet the execution was far more emphatic than the forecast suggested. Iraq's defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking threat (flagged beforehand) crystallised into four conceded goals across the ninety minutes, while our model's earlier projection of tight, low-scoring football proved overly conservative.
The result reinforces that even when directional predictions prove sound, quantifying exact margins in international football remains inherently uncertain. Norway's second-half control was clinical; Iraq, despite the early equaliser, never truly mounted a sustained threat to the outcome.