St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids
📖 The Preview
St. Louis City look the real deal right now, winning six of their last ten and sitting comfortably clear of any danger, while Colorado come into this in genuinely poor shape, hovering just two points above the relegation zone with a run of form that reads WDLWLWLLDL. The Rapids are also dealing with doubts over Zack Steffen, Travis, and Ku-DiPietro, which is the last thing you need when you're already under pressure. Colorado will nick one, sure, but St. Louis are expected to put three past them and run out 3-1 winners comfortably enough.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win Value | 5/6 1.84 | 51% | 68% | +17% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 25% | 16% | -9% |
| Colorado Rapids Win | 11/4 3.80 | 24% | 16% | -8% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Colorado Rapids in relegation danger (P11, only 2 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City averaging 2.41 goals/game at home with 60% win rate; Colorado Rapids averaging only 0.96 goals/game with 30% win rate and poor away record
H2H: 7 meetings averaging just 2 goals/game, recent 1-0 results in both directions suggest tight matches
Stakes: Colorado Rapids in relegation danger (P11, 2pt cushion) — expect defensive solidity but also desperation to score away
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
7 meetings averaging 2 goals/game with neutral dominance (2 STL wins, 2 draws, 3 COL wins); recent meetings tightly contested — 0-1, 1-0, 0-0 in last three H2H fixtures suggest low-scoring pattern
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.