USA vs Belgium
Likely line-up
📖 The Preview
Belgium go into this one as the slight favourites and the predicted 1-2 scoreline reflects that pretty well. It's a knockout tie so both sides will be fully up for it, and the numbers suggest goals at both ends, which makes sense given the pressure and the attacking intent you tend to see when there's no second chance. The big issue for USA is that Balogun is suspended through a red card, and losing that attacking threat is a real blow. Belgium look the more complete side here and just about have enough to nick it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Win | 13/8 2.59 | 37% | 34% | -3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.46 | 28% | 26% | -2% |
| Belgium Win Value | 7/4 2.74 | 35% | 40% | +5% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Knockout fixture — both teams fully motivated
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Belgium in strong form (63% win rate, avg 3.59 scored); USA inconsistent (50% win rate, key striker suspended)
H2H: Belgium won both recent meetings including 5-2 on aggregate; high-scoring pattern (5 goals/game avg)
Stakes: Knockout fixture — maximum motivation from both sides, no rotation expected
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Belgium have won both recent H2H meetings, including a 5-2 aggregate across 2014 and March 2026. High-scoring trend historically favours Belgium but USA always contribute goals.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.