Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
Final score: Diamondbacks 10–6 Cardinals ·Engine pick: St. Louis Cardinals to win ✗ Missed
Diamondbacks
61-54 · W1
Cardinals
57-58 · W1
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-07-24 11:00:26 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Diamondbacks | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-54 | 57-58 |
| Win % | .530 | .496 |
| Division | NL West | NL Central |
| Division rank | 2nd | 3rd |
| Games back | 8.0 | 14.5 |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home record | 33-23 | 28-32 |
| Away record | 28-31 | 29-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 4.58 | 4.34 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.52 | 4.43 |
| Run differential | +7 | -10 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes St. Louis Cardinals a 51.5% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as coin flip, the bottom tier: the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Diamondbacks come in 8-2 over their last 10, scoring 6.60 and conceding 3.90 runs a game. Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 at 3.20 scored and 3.90 allowed. Diamondbacks arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Brandon Pfaadt for Diamondbacks against Michael McGreevy for Cardinals — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +7 for Diamondbacks and -10 for Cardinals. Per game that is 4.58 scored against 4.52 allowed, versus 4.34 and 4.43. Diamondbacks hold the edge, though not by a margin that settles a single game.
Cardinals are 28-32 at home, Diamondbacks 28-31 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 9.0 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Cardinals at 45% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book. Model and de-vigged market land within a couple of points of each other, which is a calibration check passed rather than an opportunity found — worth saying plainly.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
