Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Prediction pending — the engine scores this game once the probable starters are posted
Guardians
57-58 · L2
Reds
55-58 · W3
Final Result & Grading
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
The engine hasn’t scored this game yet — predictions are written once the probable starters are posted, usually 24–48 hours out. This page fills in on its own when they land.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Guardians | Reds | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-58 | 55-58 |
| Win % | .496 | .487 |
| Division | AL Central | NL Central |
| Division rank | 2nd | 5th |
| Games back | 3.0 | 15.5 |
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home record | 28-30 | 28-31 |
| Away record | 29-28 | 27-27 |
| Runs scored/gm | 3.94 | 4.16 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.12 | 4.70 |
| Run differential | -21 | -61 |
How The Model Sees It
Guardians come in 3-7 over their last 10, scoring 3.50 and conceding 5.10 runs a game. Reds are 6-4 in their last 10 at 4.10 scored and 5.10 allowed. Reds arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Gavin Williams for Guardians against Caleb Ferguson for Reds — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads -21 for Guardians and -61 for Reds. Per game that is 3.94 scored against 4.12 allowed, versus 4.16 and 4.70. Guardians are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Reds are 28-31 at home, Guardians 29-28 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
This pick is published before first pitch and will be graded on this page once the game is final, whether it lands or misses.
