Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
8th Day Engine pick: St. Louis Cardinals to win
Rockies
45-70 · L3
Cardinals
57-58 · W1
Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Rockies | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 45-70 | 57-58 |
| Win % | .391 | .496 |
| Division | NL West | NL Central |
| Division rank | 5th | 3rd |
| Games back | 24.0 | 15.0 |
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Home record | 27-32 | 28-32 |
| Away record | 18-38 | 29-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 4.82 | 4.34 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 5.76 | 4.43 |
| Run differential | -108 | -10 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes St. Louis Cardinals a 54.6% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as lean, the third tier — a directional lean rather than a confident call.
Rockies come in 3-7 over their last 10, scoring 5.40 and conceding 6.40 runs a game. Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 at 3.30 scored and 4.20 allowed. Cardinals arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Michael Lorenzen for Rockies against Michael McGreevy for Cardinals — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads -108 for Rockies and -10 for Cardinals. Per game that is 4.82 scored against 5.76 allowed, versus 4.34 and 4.43. Cardinals are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Cardinals are 28-32 at home, Rockies 18-38 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 9.4 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Cardinals at 46% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book.
This pick is published before first pitch and will be graded on this page once the game is final, whether it lands or misses.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.1
