Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Final score: Dodgers 2–1 Phillies ·Engine pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to win ✓ Correct
Dodgers
69-46 · L6
Phillies
61-53 · W4
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-07-22 11:00:11 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Dodgers | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-46 | 61-53 |
| Win % | .600 | .535 |
| Division | NL West | NL East |
| Division rank | 1st | 2nd |
| Games back | - | 7.5 |
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Streak | L6 | W4 |
| Home record | 33-23 | 30-27 |
| Away record | 36-23 | 31-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 5.08 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 3.86 | 4.36 |
| Run differential | +140 | +4 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes Los Angeles Dodgers a 51.1% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as coin flip, the bottom tier: the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Dodgers come in 4-6 over their last 10, scoring 4.10 and conceding 5.20 runs a game. Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 at 3.90 scored and 4.20 allowed. Phillies arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Justin Wrobleski for Dodgers against Zack Wheeler for Phillies — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +140 for Dodgers and +4 for Phillies. Per game that is 5.08 scored against 3.86 allowed, versus 4.39 and 4.36. Dodgers are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Phillies are 30-27 at home, Dodgers 36-23 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 8.6 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Dodgers at 44% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book. Model and de-vigged market land within a couple of points of each other, which is a calibration check passed rather than an opportunity found — worth saying plainly.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
