Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Final score: Dodgers 15–3 Padres ·Engine pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to win ✓ Correct
Dodgers
69-46 · L6
Padres
59-56 · L1
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-06-28 13:00:22 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Dodgers | Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-46 | 59-56 |
| Win % | .600 | .513 |
| Division | NL West | NL West |
| Division rank | 1st | 3rd |
| Games back | - | 10.0 |
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Home record | 33-23 | 32-25 |
| Away record | 36-23 | 27-31 |
| Runs scored/gm | 5.08 | 4.23 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 3.86 | 4.37 |
| Run differential | +140 | -17 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes Los Angeles Dodgers a 62.8% pick to win — a clear edge by baseball standards, where anything past 60% is a strong statement. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as solid, the second tier — the inputs agree, but not emphatically.
Dodgers come in 7-3 over their last 10, scoring 4.10 and conceding 3.70 runs a game. Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 at 4.90 scored and 2.40 allowed, on 4 straight wins. Padres arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Dodgers against Kyle Hart for Padres — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +140 for Dodgers and -17 for Padres. Per game that is 5.08 scored against 3.86 allowed, versus 4.23 and 4.37. Dodgers are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Padres are 32-25 at home, Dodgers 36-23 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 8.3 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Dodgers at 55%. Model and de-vigged market land within a couple of points of each other, which is a calibration check passed rather than an opportunity found — worth saying plainly.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
