New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Final score: Yankees 1–0 Phillies ·Engine pick: Philadelphia Phillies to win ✗ Missed
Yankees
64-51 · L1
Phillies
61-54 · L1
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-07-25 11:00:21 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Yankees | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-51 | 61-54 |
| Win % | .557 | .530 |
| Division | AL East | NL East |
| Division rank | 2nd | 2nd |
| Games back | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home record | 27-25 | 30-28 |
| Away record | 37-26 | 31-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 4.54 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 3.83 | 4.41 |
| Run differential | +81 | -2 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes Philadelphia Phillies a 54.2% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as lean, the third tier — a directional lean rather than a confident call.
Yankees come in 7-3 over their last 10, scoring 4.40 and conceding 3.30 runs a game. Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 at 3.60 scored and 4.10 allowed. Yankees arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Cam Schlittler for Yankees against Jesús Luzardo for Phillies — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +81 for Yankees and -2 for Phillies. Per game that is 4.54 scored against 3.83 allowed, versus 4.39 and 4.41. Yankees are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Phillies are 30-28 at home, Yankees 37-26 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 8.3 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Phillies at 47% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book. Model and de-vigged market land within a couple of points of each other, which is a calibration check passed rather than an opportunity found — worth saying plainly.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
