Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

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Team Stats · 2026 Season

How The Model Sees It

Phillies come in 6-4 over their last 10, scoring 5.00 and conceding 5.50 runs a game. Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 at 3.90 scored and 5.10 allowed. Phillies arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.

On the mound it is Alan Rangel for Phillies against Chase Burns for Reds — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.

Season run differential reads -2 for Phillies and -61 for Reds. Per game that is 4.39 scored against 4.41 allowed, versus 4.16 and 4.70. Phillies are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.

Reds are 28-31 at home, Phillies 31-26 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.

This pick is published before first pitch and will be graded on this page once the game is final, whether it lands or misses.