St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Prediction pending — the engine scores this game once the probable starters are posted
Cardinals
59-60 · L1
Cubs
69-50 · W1
Win Probabilities
The engine hasn’t scored this game yet — predictions are written once the probable starters are posted, usually 24–48 hours out. This page fills in on its own when they land.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Cardinals | Cubs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 59-60 | 69-50 |
| Win % | .496 | .580 |
| Division | NL Central | NL Central |
| Division rank | 3rd | 2nd |
| Games back | 15.0 | 5.0 |
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home record | 30-34 | 35-24 |
| Away record | 29-26 | 34-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 4.37 | 5.16 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.45 | 4.26 |
| Run differential | -9 | +107 |
How The Model Sees It
Cardinals come in 5-5 over their last 10, scoring 4.40 and conceding 3.90 runs a game. Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 at 5.00 scored and 3.20 allowed. Cubs arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
Only one starter is confirmed — Matthew Liberatore for Cardinals — with the other still to be named. The projection tightens once both are known, because starting pitching is the single largest swing factor in a baseball game.
Season run differential reads -9 for Cardinals and +107 for Cubs. Per game that is 4.37 scored against 4.45 allowed, versus 5.16 and 4.26. Cubs are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Cubs are 35-24 at home, Cardinals 29-26 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
This pick is published before first pitch and will be graded on this page once the game is final, whether it lands or misses.
