Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Prediction pending — the engine scores this game once the probable starters are posted
Blue Jays
54-61 · W1
Phillies
61-54 · L1
Win Probabilities
The engine hasn’t scored this game yet — predictions are written once the probable starters are posted, usually 24–48 hours out. This page fills in on its own when they land.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Blue Jays | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 54-61 | 61-54 |
| Win % | .470 | .530 |
| Division | AL East | NL East |
| Division rank | 5th | 2nd |
| Games back | 14.5 | 8.5 |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Home record | 28-31 | 30-28 |
| Away record | 26-30 | 31-26 |
| Runs scored/gm | 3.90 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.43 | 4.41 |
| Run differential | -60 | -2 |
How The Model Sees It
Blue Jays come in 6-4 over their last 10, scoring 3.40 and conceding 3.70 runs a game. Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 at 5.60 scored and 4.00 allowed. Blue Jays arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
Only one starter is confirmed — Max Scherzer for Blue Jays — with the other still to be named. The projection tightens once both are known, because starting pitching is the single largest swing factor in a baseball game.
Season run differential reads -60 for Blue Jays and -2 for Phillies. Per game that is 3.90 scored against 4.43 allowed, versus 4.39 and 4.41. Phillies are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Phillies are 30-28 at home, Blue Jays 26-30 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
This pick is published before first pitch and will be graded on this page once the game is final, whether it lands or misses.
