Packers at Buccaneers
Win Probabilities
From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.
Matchup Facts
Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.
How The Model Sees It
Our rating has Green Bay Packers as the stronger side by 52 rating points, which on its own is worth about 2.1 points on the scoreboard (GB 1,516, TB 1,464).
Home field adds 1.4 points to TB — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be. Rest shifts it a further -0.3 points (GB 10 days, TB 7).
That lands on a projected margin of -1.0, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives Green Bay Packers at 53%.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet — books typically price about three weeks ahead. Until one appears, this page shows the engine's number with nothing to compare it against, which is exactly the situation the model is most useful in.
More From Week 4
Next Up Elsewhere
Other games already through the engine.
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Every sport runs on the same engine, and every pick is published before the event and graded after.