Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad
📖 The Preview
Rosenborg at home against a Fredrikstad side genuinely fighting to stay in the division looks a pretty comfortable three points on paper. The hosts carry a 75 percent win probability, hold the better head-to-head record, and are playing in front of their own fans. Fredrikstad will nick one, which the both-teams-to-score prediction backs up, but chasing the game under relegation pressure usually opens you up at the back, and that's exactly how this ends as a 3-1 home win.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg Win Value | 8/11 1.72 | 55% | 75% | +20% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 17% | -8% |
| Fredrikstad Win | 7/2 4.50 | 20% | 8% | -12% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Rosenborg mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- 🆘 Fredrikstad in relegation danger (P12, only 2 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rosenborg averaging 2.11 goals scored at home with recent 3-0, 3-0 results; Fredrikstad averaging just 0.61 goals scored and 0-1, 0-2 in last away trips
H2H: Last 5 meetings average only 2 goals/game; Rosenborg won most recent two encounters 2-0 and 1-0, keeping clean sheets
Stakes: Fredrikstad are in relegation danger which adds motivation, but their poor attacking form away from home undermines any uplift; Rosenborg are mid-table with less urgency but have home comfort
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last two H2H meetings (both featuring Rosenborg as home side or host) ended 2-0 and 1-0 in Rosenborg's favour with clean sheets; overall H2H averages just 2 goals per game and Rosenborg hold the edge in recent clashes.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.