Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction
Final score: Cubs 10–5 Mets ·Engine pick: New York Mets to win ✗ Missed
Cubs
66-49 · W3
Mets
49-66 · W2
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-06-25 09:19:33 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Cubs | Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-49 | 49-66 |
| Win % | .574 | .426 |
| Division | NL Central | NL East |
| Division rank | 2nd | 5th |
| Games back | 5.5 | 20.5 |
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Streak | W3 | W2 |
| Home record | 34-24 | 25-34 |
| Away record | 32-25 | 24-32 |
| Runs scored/gm | 5.15 | 4.08 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.29 | 4.54 |
| Run differential | +99 | -53 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes New York Mets a 50.4% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as coin flip, the bottom tier: the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Cubs come in 6-4 over their last 10, scoring 3.40 and conceding 3.30 runs a game. Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 at 5.00 scored and 5.50 allowed. Cubs arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Shota Imanaga for Cubs against Sean Manaea for Mets — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +99 for Cubs and -53 for Mets. Per game that is 5.15 scored against 4.29 allowed, versus 4.08 and 4.54. Cubs are clearly the better side on the season — and differential is a more honest measure than record, because it survives the luck in one-run games.
Mets are 25-34 at home, Cubs 32-25 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 8.1 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Cubs at 42% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
