Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Final score: Mariners 1–11 Pirates ·Engine pick: Pittsburgh Pirates to win ✓ Correct
Mariners
55-59 · L1
Pirates
57-58 · L1
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-06-25 09:19:33 · engine mlb-sim-1.0.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Mariners | Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-59 | 57-58 |
| Win % | .482 | .496 |
| Division | AL West | NL Central |
| Division rank | 3rd | 3rd |
| Games back | 3.0 | 14.0 |
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home record | 32-25 | 29-28 |
| Away record | 23-34 | 28-30 |
| Runs scored/gm | 3.98 | 5.08 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 4.03 | 4.83 |
| Run differential | -5 | +29 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes Pittsburgh Pirates a 58.3% pick to win — a modest edge, real but the kind that loses often enough to sting. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as lean, the third tier — a directional lean rather than a confident call.
Mariners come in 5-5 over their last 10, scoring 3.90 and conceding 5.00 runs a game. Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 at 4.00 scored and 2.20 allowed. Pirates arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Bryan Woo for Mariners against Braxton Ashcraft for Pirates — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads -5 for Mariners and +29 for Pirates. Per game that is 3.98 scored against 4.03 allowed, versus 5.08 and 4.83. Pirates hold the edge, though not by a margin that settles a single game.
Pirates are 29-28 at home, Mariners 23-34 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 7.3 runs — a low-scoring, pitcher-led night. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Pirates at 48% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.0
